Evaluating The Buffalo Sabres Prospects

This Week On ThEnEiLsHoW, Neil Sits down with Sabres Prospects guru Kristofer Baker from sabresprospects.com to talk about the future of the Buffalo Sabres.

Theneilshow - Out of all the Buffalo Sabres prospects, who is the “can’t miss”
prospect in the system? And what are their qualities.

Kristofer Baker - Buffalo’s closest thing to a “can’t miss” prospect has to be Swedish goaltender, Jhonas Enroth. He’s very quick and agile in his butterfly, and he’s got an excellent glove hand.

We saw him backstop Sweden to a silver medal at the World Junior Championships against players his own age, but he’s been even better in Elitserien play with Sodertalje. He sees a ton of rubber on an average team, and has been a league leader in save percentage and goals against average all season long.

Enroth seems to have the tools to make an North American living, and the confidence to back it up. He knows he’s good, and rarely gets rattled.

I’ll put Andrej Sekera in this category as well. Sabres fans got a brief taste of what he’s capable of as left-side defenseman opposite Toni Lydman earlier this season. He’s smooth with the puck, and has shown enough own-zone acumen to tell me he’s a surefire NHLer beginning in 2008-09.

Theneilshow -Jhonas Enroth was touted “the best goalie out of Sweden since Henrik
Lundqvist”during the World Junior Championships this year.Is that a fair statement? and who’s style would you compare Enroth with?

Kristofer Baker - It’s a fair assessment in the sense that he possesses greater potential than other Swedish goalies like Chris Heino-Lindberg, Joel Gistedt, Mark Owuya, and Daniel Larsson. Lundqvist is a generational talent who carried a team to a SEL championship in a competitive lockout year before becoming the highest paid goaltender in the league. Enroth has a lot of work to do before ascending the ranks to reach Lundy’s status, but he’s off to a good start.

In terms of style, he’s a technically sound butterfly goalie. He challenges shooters much like Evgeni Nabokov, and moves well in the crease much like a Manny Legace.

Theneilshow -Some have said that the Sabres now lack talent in the prospects pool,
after having a over flowing pool for some years. Do you agree with that?

Kristofer Baker - In terms of forwards, yes. I don’t see a pure, dominant scorer with a pro-ready frame in the cupboards right now. They don’t grow on trees of course, but the next draft should see the team looking for more explosive performers.

Buffalo was top heavy with forwards just a few years ago, and is now a little light after addressing a defensive shortage with higher picks in the last couple of drafts. One guy who does have a scoring knack, Paul Byron of Gatineau (QMJHL), is less than six feet tall and is maybe 150 pounds. Tim Kennedy has been a scorer in the USHL and NCAA, but I don’t consider him to be top-end.

Theneilshow -The Sabres seem to lack that intimidating factor on the blue line. In
the 2007 draft they drafted T.J.Brennan 2nd round 31st overall. Could he fill that void in the future? What is your take on Brennan’s game? And when should we see him in a Sabres uniform?

Kristofer Baker - The Sabres have a plethora of mobile, puck-moving defensemen, with Brennan being one of them. I think his blistering slap shot is his greatest asset. I like how he makes himself a “4th forward” by going straight to the net on a rush, but he probably jumps up too much. I’d rather see more attention paid to his defensive responsibilities. The kid has one of the worst +/- ratings in the QMJHL right now, and it’s on his coaches to teach him out of that.

Brennan plays the body often, but I don’t consider it an intimidating side to his game. Mike Weber in Rochester sets a more physical tone, and is still the most intimidating presence in the pipeline. He’ll line you up and try to put you through the boards. He has caught a few guys with their heads down this season (his first as a pro).

Theneilshow -The Buffalo Sabres are one of the only, if not the only, team to use video scouting. I believe they have been using this technique for two years now. I know it’s too early to tell a lot yet, but in your opinion is this better then the “old” traditional scouting tactics? If so why?

Kristopher Baker - I’m 100% OK with it. I suspect that video had been responsible for much of their scouting work anyways prior to the announcement that it’d become the preferred method. I think it’s an efficient way to evaluate a greater group of players, and I’m pretty sure they use it as a way to deploy the scouts they do have abroad.

I’m in no position to question the Regier-era staff’s ability to judge junior talent. Some will disagree by looking at the first round alone, but they’ve done a good job of amassing quality depth in the middle and late rounds. If they keep getting value across the board, I’ll keep subscribing to the “if it aint broke, don’t fix it” philosophy regarding video scouting.

Theneilshow -One Sabres prospect that has potential to develop into a “Brian Campbell” type mold is Marc-Andre Gragnani. Can you tell us a bit about his game?

Kristofer Baker - The kid is wired for offensive hockey. His head is always up, he skates very well, and he makes some great passes, but he’s not physical enough to handle big forwards from the back end. He’s not small at 6′2, 195 pounds, but honestly, he’s better suited to be a wing at the NHL level. He’s actually been most productive when playing forward for Rochester this season.

At one point while still a full-timer on the blue line, Gragnani had the worst +/- in the AHL. Rochester being a weaker club was partially responsible for that, but it’s no coincidence that he started to bury himself out with more “plus” games when he moved up to see more time down the wing. He still mans a point on the power play, where his vision drives many scoring opportunities, but I’d love to see the Sabres roll him as a left wing next camp to see where it goes. By then, there should be a few more defensemen under contract to allow that to happen.

A former colleague recently spoke with Gragnani and asked him who his favorite NHL players are/were. His responses (Gretzky, Forsberg, Datsyuk) were all forwards. I’m not surprised.

Theneilshow -One guy’s play that opened my eyes and made my ears perk up a couple of years ago in the World Junior Hockey Championship was Team USA’s Nathan Gerbe. Drafted 142nd overall in 05 by the Sabres. Does he have the tools to make a impact and overcome his small stature and have a impact in the NHL? Gerbe is listed at 5′5 150lbs.

Kristofer Baker - I’m gaining confidence in Gerbe’s ability to make it as an NHLer despite his diminutive stature. Coming into this season, I was somewhat critical of his game, not “buying into the hype”, if you will. At his size, you have to dominate at the collegiate level much like Brian Gionta and Martin St. Louis did if you plan on playing in the top league.

Gerbe has since started to answer my questions. He leads the nation in points-per-game, goes to the net hard, and has quite the attitude to make up for any shortcomings his frame presents. He’s very aggressive on the ice, and it’s going to be that quality that keeps him in the hunt for an NHL job. The next step is adding as much mass as possible. I think he needs to be a minimum of 175-180 pounds to succeed as a pro, yet can’t afford to lose a step or an ounce of the shiftiness that separates him from his peers.

Names like Theo Fleury and the already mentioned Gionta and St. Louis often get tossed around when discussing Gerbe. He has elements of all three to his game, so it’ll obviously be very entertaining to watch him mature and work his way up after his Boston College days are over. He’s a junior now, and I doubt he returns for his senior season.

Theneilshow –You cover all Sabres prospects closely. Out of all the prospects you have covered, who is the guy that doesn’t get mentioned that you think will turn heads one day in Sabres silks, and why?

Kristofer Baker - Philip Gogulla has been developing under the radar in the DEL since his 2005 drafting. After his first NHL training camp this past fall, he returned to Germany with greater confidence and it shows in his play. He’s strong along the boards, gets the puck deep, and plays a game very similar to another Sabre of German descent, Jochen Hecht.

I’m not sure Gogulla ever scores 20 in the NHL, but he’s got the make-up of an efficient, two-way player who can pick up points through hard work. Those guys turn heads, too.

Theneilshow -What is stopping Marek Zagrapan from getting a shot with the Sabres. I
personally thought he would get the opportunity this season for a call up to prove himself.

Kristofer Baker - Zagrapan is progressing, just not at the pace that most had expected. He has 16 goals this season to lead Rochester, and will get his look eventually after showing he could make plays in preseason. I’m pretty patient with this kid. He’s got a good burst, and sees the ice well. He just needs to nail down the keys to a consistent effort, and his game should take shape from there. He recently turned 21, so time is still on his side in my estimation.

He was playing his best hockey of the season at the time of the Sabres last call to Rochester. However, the Sabres thought that a different type of spark was necessary, opting for the crash-and-bang style of Patrick Kaleta instead. His scoring has tapered a bit since then, but there’s still time for him to finish strong heading into the summer months. This fall’s training camp will be more telling of what his future holds.

Theneilshow -Are the Sabres lacking any one thing in their prospect stable that they
should change in this year’s draft. Any one position in particular?

Kristofer Baker - Aside from my belief that they need to walk away from the next draft with at least three legitimate scoring threats (read: high picks), the defensive stable is lacking in imposing bruisers. Weber is the only stay-at-home protector in the system who will readily drop the gloves. Vermont recruit Drew MacKenzie has shown some elements of sandpaper in the USHL this year, but mobile, crisp-passing defenders like Chris Butler, Drew Schiestel, Alex Biega outnumber those types.

Darcy Regier has stated his preference to snag a goalie every draft, but he could stay away this year after the two he grabbed last June - Brad Eidsness and Nick Eno - are developing nicely in year one.

Theneilshow -I know Mark Mancari a bit from a few pre season games, and I know he has one heck of a slap shot(he actually set a AHL Record this year),What are his positives and negatives?

Kristofer Baker -Mancari does indeed have a thick shot, but it’s tough to get off in the speed of the game. While he skates well for a big guy, he needs to use that size more to his advantage on a regular basis. More emotion and aggression could be keys to getting Mancari another NHL look. It took him some time to develop and lead when he was in the OHL, but for now he looks more and more likely to follow a similar up-and-down career path to that of another late-round Sabres draftee - Denis Hamel.

Theneilshow -Can you tell our readers at NHL Digest a little about your website
and where we can read your work?

Kristofer Baker - SabresProspects.com was started in hopes of offering color to an underserved slice of the Sabres organization. It’s updated daily via web scrapes and my own first-hand viewings, and acts as a consolidated resource for news, stats, and opinion regarding Sabres properties in North American and European leagues. These kids are drafted at 18, but rarely don a Sabres sweater until they’re 22-23 years of age. It’s my mission to let the fans know what’s happening in between.

I spent much of my youth traveling on buses, going from rink to rink with guys who were living the same life as these prospects. That’s really where my connection rests. My genetic code probably reads “OHLNCAAQMJHL…”. Couple that with the fact that I’ve been a Sabres fan since before the ink was wet on my birth certificate, and you have yourself a passionate, semi-addicted site owner. Stop on by! Reader feedback, site ideas, and general chatter are always welcome at bakes (at) sabresprospects.com.

Thanks, Neil. This was fun.

http://www.sabresprospects.com/

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