Can Montreal Afford Vincent Lecavalier?

The following is the an article submitted to NHL Digest by columnist Kyle Roussel.  You are encouraged to catch up with Kyle at www.twitter.com/kyleroussel. Enjoy!

Here we go again. Again.

If you believe what’s going on in Montreal, Lecavalier is going to be a Canadien sooner than later. Stop me if you’ve heard this before.

Apparently it’s not just fluff this time though. Bob McKenzie thinks there’s at least the potential that this can happen. In past years these rumors were almost immediately shot down by everyone and their dog. Tampa didn’t want to move their cornerstone, their cornerstone didn’t want to move and the Canadiens didn’t seem to want any cornerstones from the outside. Apparently times have changed. If you believe what’s being said, the Canadiens are about set to trade half their roster and future to make this happen now.

Betting The Farm

Bob Gainey is said to be offering Chris Higgins, Tomas Plekanec, Josh Gorges, at least one of P.K. Subban or Ryan McDonagh, and some combination of elite draft picks.

Ouch.

That’s a lot, even for a guy as prolific as Lecavalier.

The Canadiens have been successful in the past couple seasons because of their organizational depth. With this trade, that’s almost all but washed out. Of course, Bob Gainey has forgotten more about hockey than I’ll ever know, so who’s to say if I’m right or wrong. I agree that in order to get something, you have to give something, but in this case I think there’s an element of mirage in what is coming back.

“What???” You’re asking yourself? “Lecavalier is the REAL DEAL. A cup winner. Conn Smythe winner. Where’s the mirage?”

There are a lot of intangibles that go in to this deal. There’s a BIG difference in putting up numbers in Tampa and replicating those same stats under the glare of the Montreal spotlight. A huge difference! Especially for a Francophone. Pierre Turgeon wasn’t exactly the same Pierre Turgeon that was among the league leaders year after year when he was a Sabre and Islander. He melted under the pressure here. Theodore fell as quickly as he rose once the fishbowl around him either got too small or he got too big. And then there’s Patrice Brisebois.

Brisbois was a nice fit for several years, then inexplicably was given a huge long term deal as the Canadiens #1 defenseman. He eventually became the nightly whipping boy and was literally booed out of town. When he was signed by the Avalanche, people were dancing all over the place as if the Emperor had been thrown down the Death Star shaft.

My point here is if the trade goes down, there will be a sweetheart of a honeymoon with Lecavalier, during which time he will put up middling numbers, which will be excused by the fact that he just had shoulder surgery. That may or may not be fair. But the Canadiens wouldn’t acquire him to put up middling numbers, nor would the fans accept middling numbers…for long.

Lofty Expectations

And therein lies the problem. This guy will be expected to score 40-50 goals EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. for the next ELEVEN years. Sure, at some point fans will temper their expectations of him. But who in their right mind takes on an 11 year deal for ANYONE? To me that’s just irresponsible. Eventually Lecavalier will have a bad year. It may be sooner than later. Just wait to see how quickly that honeymoon ends! Ever see “The Heartbreak Kid” with Ben Stiller? It would end about that quickly if Vinny DARED have an off year. It’s just not accepted around here, especially not from a home grown star who is supposed to lead les Glorieux to the promised land.

I don’t blame the fans. The Canadiens are religion in Montreal. Seriously – they are. A local university actually has a course entitled “The Religion of the Canadiens”. So says Michael Farber’s latest article. They’re passionate about their team, about the roots of their team. Richard, Beliveau, Plante, Lafleur, Latendr…nevermind.

I’m passionate about them too. But it seems in their passion, they lose sight of the fact that this is a different age. It’s now an age where the game and the business of the game has changed so much that there are very few of those legends left. A player has relatively few issues with picking up and moving to another market where he will make similar, if not more money. There’s been a void since the Flower left. Sure, we had Roy. But I’m talking about a home-grown, lift-you-out-of-your-seat goal scorer. We thought the void was at least partially filled with Turgeon. That didn’t work out. In fact it was a bust. Kovalev gets people out of their seats sure enough…but, you know…he’s Russian.

I suppose their *could* be an upside to this. I’d even go as high as 50-50. With so many pending unrestricted free agents at season’s end, having a stud like Lecavalier takes some of the leverage away from Koivu and Kovalev to demand another fat contract. Is that on Gainey’s mind? He’s a strategic guy, but I don’t know if that counts as strategy or circumstance.

Either way, it wouldn’t take long for the media to start the “ditch Koivu” (after 15 years of service mind you) campaign at season’s end and appoint Lecavalier as captain. Do me a favor and stay tuned. If this trade happens, you can set your watch to that prediction.

Could The Habs make It Work?

In the end, I think the Canadiens can absorb the loss of the guys they’d give up. They now draft well enough and have guys like D’Agostini, Chipchura and Pacioretty ready to step in to the NHL. They’ve also got a plethora of young defensemen that look like they will be the future of Montreal’s blue line. But I think an 11 year deal is just too much contract to take on. Add to that the fishbowl environment, and the pressure Vinny will face, and it’s certain to explode in Gainey’s face before the contract is half over. Then he’ll have to trade him away for nothing, as Houle had to do with Roy. Ok, maybe not that bad!

Either way, it’s going to be interesting to see how this shapes up.

I sound fairly dug in on the “nay” side of this equation. The truth is I want to see Vinny here in a Habs jersey as much as anyone. It would be so great to see a local kid bring the cup back to Montreal. So I’m asking you to give me reasons as to why this makes sense. Why should Gainey do this trade?