Can Montreal Afford Vincent Lecavalier?

The following is the an article submitted to NHL Digest by columnist Kyle Roussel.  You are encouraged to catch up with Kyle at www.twitter.com/kyleroussel. Enjoy!

Here we go again. Again.

If you believe what’s going on in Montreal, Lecavalier is going to be a Canadien sooner than later. Stop me if you’ve heard this before.

Apparently it’s not just fluff this time though. Bob McKenzie thinks there’s at least the potential that this can happen. In past years these rumors were almost immediately shot down by everyone and their dog. Tampa didn’t want to move their cornerstone, their cornerstone didn’t want to move and the Canadiens didn’t seem to want any cornerstones from the outside. Apparently times have changed. If you believe what’s being said, the Canadiens are about set to trade half their roster and future to make this happen now.

Betting The Farm

Bob Gainey is said to be offering Chris Higgins, Tomas Plekanec, Josh Gorges, at least one of P.K. Subban or Ryan McDonagh, and some combination of elite draft picks.

Ouch.

That’s a lot, even for a guy as prolific as Lecavalier.

The Canadiens have been successful in the past couple seasons because of their organizational depth. With this trade, that’s almost all but washed out. Of course, Bob Gainey has forgotten more about hockey than I’ll ever know, so who’s to say if I’m right or wrong. I agree that in order to get something, you have to give something, but in this case I think there’s an element of mirage in what is coming back.

“What???” You’re asking yourself? “Lecavalier is the REAL DEAL. A cup winner. Conn Smythe winner. Where’s the mirage?”

There are a lot of intangibles that go in to this deal. There’s a BIG difference in putting up numbers in Tampa and replicating those same stats under the glare of the Montreal spotlight. A huge difference! Especially for a Francophone. Pierre Turgeon wasn’t exactly the same Pierre Turgeon that was among the league leaders year after year when he was a Sabre and Islander. He melted under the pressure here. Theodore fell as quickly as he rose once the fishbowl around him either got too small or he got too big. And then there’s Patrice Brisebois.

Brisbois was a nice fit for several years, then inexplicably was given a huge long term deal as the Canadiens #1 defenseman. He eventually became the nightly whipping boy and was literally booed out of town. When he was signed by the Avalanche, people were dancing all over the place as if the Emperor had been thrown down the Death Star shaft.

My point here is if the trade goes down, there will be a sweetheart of a honeymoon with Lecavalier, during which time he will put up middling numbers, which will be excused by the fact that he just had shoulder surgery. That may or may not be fair. But the Canadiens wouldn’t acquire him to put up middling numbers, nor would the fans accept middling numbers…for long.

Lofty Expectations

And therein lies the problem. This guy will be expected to score 40-50 goals EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. for the next ELEVEN years. Sure, at some point fans will temper their expectations of him. But who in their right mind takes on an 11 year deal for ANYONE? To me that’s just irresponsible. Eventually Lecavalier will have a bad year. It may be sooner than later. Just wait to see how quickly that honeymoon ends! Ever see “The Heartbreak Kid” with Ben Stiller? It would end about that quickly if Vinny DARED have an off year. It’s just not accepted around here, especially not from a home grown star who is supposed to lead les Glorieux to the promised land.

I don’t blame the fans. The Canadiens are religion in Montreal. Seriously – they are. A local university actually has a course entitled “The Religion of the Canadiens”. So says Michael Farber’s latest article. They’re passionate about their team, about the roots of their team. Richard, Beliveau, Plante, Lafleur, Latendr…nevermind.

I’m passionate about them too. But it seems in their passion, they lose sight of the fact that this is a different age. It’s now an age where the game and the business of the game has changed so much that there are very few of those legends left. A player has relatively few issues with picking up and moving to another market where he will make similar, if not more money. There’s been a void since the Flower left. Sure, we had Roy. But I’m talking about a home-grown, lift-you-out-of-your-seat goal scorer. We thought the void was at least partially filled with Turgeon. That didn’t work out. In fact it was a bust. Kovalev gets people out of their seats sure enough…but, you know…he’s Russian.

I suppose their *could* be an upside to this. I’d even go as high as 50-50. With so many pending unrestricted free agents at season’s end, having a stud like Lecavalier takes some of the leverage away from Koivu and Kovalev to demand another fat contract. Is that on Gainey’s mind? He’s a strategic guy, but I don’t know if that counts as strategy or circumstance.

Either way, it wouldn’t take long for the media to start the “ditch Koivu” (after 15 years of service mind you) campaign at season’s end and appoint Lecavalier as captain. Do me a favor and stay tuned. If this trade happens, you can set your watch to that prediction.

Could The Habs make It Work?

In the end, I think the Canadiens can absorb the loss of the guys they’d give up. They now draft well enough and have guys like D’Agostini, Chipchura and Pacioretty ready to step in to the NHL. They’ve also got a plethora of young defensemen that look like they will be the future of Montreal’s blue line. But I think an 11 year deal is just too much contract to take on. Add to that the fishbowl environment, and the pressure Vinny will face, and it’s certain to explode in Gainey’s face before the contract is half over. Then he’ll have to trade him away for nothing, as Houle had to do with Roy. Ok, maybe not that bad!

Either way, it’s going to be interesting to see how this shapes up.

I sound fairly dug in on the “nay” side of this equation. The truth is I want to see Vinny here in a Habs jersey as much as anyone. It would be so great to see a local kid bring the cup back to Montreal. So I’m asking you to give me reasons as to why this makes sense. Why should Gainey do this trade?

Behind The Tampa Bay Lightning With Dave Mishkin

In this week’s behind the scenes installment of theneilshow Neil Bristow delves into the mind of Tampa Bay Lightning play by play personality Dave Mishkin.

Neil Bristow – Recently Former Tampa coach Barry Melrose said on a Toronto Radio Station that he didn’t think rookie Steven Stamkos (3-8-11 minus 11) wasn’t “ready” for the NHL.

What are your thoughts on the statements Melrose made?

Dave Mishkin – Like most of the people who have responded to Melrose’s comments, both within and outside the organization (I heard Bobby Clarke and former Lightning coach John Tortorella express their objections to his statements), I disagree with his assessment.

Stamkos is a tremendous skater and has an “NHL shot”.  Like a lot of young players, he is learning to play the game at the NHL level.  He has made mistakes, but his mistakes have been no more egregious than any other mistakes a young, talented player might make.

Furthermore, he is showing improvement from game to game, especially as his ice time has increased.  Specifically, I disagree with Barry’s comment about how Steven wasn’t “strong” enough”.  I’ve seen Stamkos fearlessly go into the corners and win pucks from opposing defensemen.  He will get stronger, no doubt, but I don’t think his size prohibits him from playing in the NHL.

Neil Bristow – With the recent economy talk at the GM meetings, there were reports that the Coyotes could lose up to 35 million this season. In your mind, will the Lightning be ok?

Dave Mishkin – Obviously, I don’t deal with the financial side of things with the team, but I can state that the fan base in the Tampa Bay area is quite strong.  New owners Oren Koules and Len Barrie (and six other minority owners) were drawn to the Tampa Bay area in large part because of that strong fan base.

Neil Bristow – Since the Lightning let Barry Melrose walk, the Tampa Bay Lightning were 5-7-4.With new coach Rick Tocchet has only one win since taking over the reins. Where do the problems begin with this once Juggernaut Tampa Bay Lightning team?

Dave Mishkin – The interesting part about the last few weeks is that the record somewhat belies how the guys are playing.  Lightning coaches have commented that the players are starting to learn the team concept and are improving in certain areas that needed work.  For instance, the Lightning has cut down on scoring chances against in recent games and that was a big problem earlier in the year.  Still, the Bolts hadn’t been able to translate better play into victories, at least until last night’s win in Montreal.

Neil Bristow – If the season keeps going the way it’s going for Tampa Bay, Do you see them asking Marty St.Louis to waive his no trade clause and move him and get some younger kids and go at it again next season?

Dave Mishkin – I don’t see that happening.  Marty, along with Vinny Lecavalier, is one of the faces of the franchise, and the organization recognizes that.  Furthermore, he is a very productive player — with two goals last night, he now has points in 10 of his last 11 games.  The Lightning has struggled to score goals this year so Marty’s hot streak is certainly welcomed!

Neil Bristow – Who has been the biggest bright spot on the Tampa roster this far? How Come?

Dave Mishkin – From the start of the season, Mike Smith has been the Lightning’s most consistent player.  He was facing a lot of shots early in the season and his stellar play kept those games close.  I am hard-pressed to recall even one “bad goal”, so to speak, that he has allowed this year.

Neil Bristow – Zenon Konopka has been recalled to help out Tampa and their injury problems.

What should Lightning fans expect out of Konopka?

Dave Mishkin – To be honest, I haven’t seen Konopka play more than just a handful of games.  We didn’t see much of him when he was with Anaheim and Columbus.  So I may not be the best source for an in-depth scouting report.  But I do know that he is a consummate team player (he is the captain of Norfolk) and plays with an edge.  He will fight anybody (we saw that in training camp) and he also is capable of providing some offense.  I think the Lightning fans will enjoy watching him play.

Neil Bristow – With what has happened with Sean Avery this last little while, do you think the 6 games he was suspended is justice for his actions? Any thoughts on the Avery issue?

Dave Mishkin – To me, it sounded as if Avery knew he crossed the line and now he wants to make amends.  As far as the six-game suspension is concerned, I’m not sure the league had a lot of precedent to draw on for a situation like that one.  From what I heard, nobody around the league seemed to have a problem with the number of games, though.

Neil Bristow – Still with Avery…. Do you think the Lightning would have any interest in Mr.Avery?

Dave Mishkin – Right now, it seems that no teams, even minor league clubs, want to bring Sean Avery on board.

Neil Bristow – I was watching the game between the Lightning and the Sabres the other night and I saw Lecavalier exchanging punches with Jochen Hecht. What are your thoughts on superstars fighting risking injury? Should they or shouldn’t they be allowed?

Dave Mishkin – Of course, superstars can be “allowed” (to use your word) to fight.  Frankly, I don’t know how anyone could stop a willing player from dropping the gloves.  Hockey is an emotional and passionate game.  That’s a good thing!  Sometimes, the by-product of that emotion and passion is a fight.

In Lecavalier’s case, he has fought before, so it’s not as if he was in unchartered territory.  He even fought Jarome Iginla in the 2004 Finals.  It’s true that someone might get hurt in a fight, but nobody wants to take the passion and emotion away from a player, whether he’s a top line guy or a fourth-liner.

I don’t think a coach wants one of his top players regularly sitting in the penalty box for long periods of time, but if anyone understands how fights can happen, it’s Rick Tocchet!

Neil Bristow – Can the Lightning move forward and get back into the playoff picture in your eyes?

Dave Mishkin – The Lightning has a tall mountain to climb at this point, but there’s certainly still time for Tampa Bay to get back in the playoff race.  That’s a long-term vision, though.  The coaches and players are more concerned with their short-term goals: continuing to improve their play so that they start winning games more regularly.

Neil Bristow – Tampa Bay played the Flyers a little while ago and I seen something I have never witnessed before. Scotty Hartnell throwing his glove at Ryan Malone on a breakaway. Being a play by play announcer I am sure you have seen some whacky stuff. In your time as voice of the Tampa Bay Lightning what is the craziest thing you have witnessed during a Lightning game?

Dave Mishkin-That Hartnell play was one of the craziest, that’s for sure!  But the NHL game is so polished that wacky stuff doesn’t often occur.  Such things happen with more frequency at the minor league or college level.  For example, when I was in school, I was calling an ECAC playoff game between Yale and Colgate.  Colgate is located in upstate New York and is in a rural area.

After the first period, the zamboni broke down on the ice and was stuck there.  After a couple of hours, somebody found a tractor, brought it onto the ice, hitched the zamboni on and hauled it off.  The patch of ice underneath where the zamboni was stuck had essentially melted through though, so they postponed the game until the next day.

I would like to personally say thanks to Dave Mishkin for taking the time to talk with nhldigest.com

He is clearly one of the nicest guys in the business; not to mention one of the best play by play guys in the NHL.

To Hear Mr.Mishkin in action check this clip out:

If you have any questions or comments feel free to reach me at theneilshow (at) shaw (dot) ca

I encourage feedback on interviews in the comments section as well.

Till next time for nhldigest.com…I’m Neil Bristow